Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Devin S. Johnson; Michael S. WilliamsRaymond L. Czaplewski
    Date: 2003
    Source: Forest Science. 49(1): 50-63.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (211.56 KB)

    Description

    The performance of three classes of weighted average estimators is studied for an annual inventory design similar to the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the United States. The first class is based on an ARIMA(0,1,1) time series model. The equal weight, simple moving average is a member of this class. The second class is based on an ARIMA(0,2,2) time series model. The final class is based on a locally weighted least-squares regression prediction. The estimator properties were tested using a simulation population created from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from northeastern Minnesota. Estimates of total volume per acre, on-growth volume per acre, mortality volume per acre, proportion of sawtimber acreage, proportion of poletimber acreage, and proportion of sapling acreage were calculated using several weighted average estimators in each year. These were compared to the simulation population, for which the true values are known, and an unbiased yearly estimator. When computing estimates, the ARIMA(0,1,1) based estimators produced the lowest root mean squared error of each of the three classes. However, in a few years the bias for some variables was high. The maximum percent increase between the estimator with the lowest root mean squared error and the simple moving average was 7.31%. Of all the estimators, the simple moving average performed well in terms of mean square error in virtually every situation. It tended to be best among the estimators tested if spatial variation was large and change was relatively small. It was not consistently best in terms of mean square error in the presence of moderate change and large spatial variation.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Johnson, Devin S.; Williams, Michael S.; Czaplewski, Raymond L. 2003. Comparison of estimators for rolling samples using Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Forest Science. 49(1): 50-63.

    Keywords

    rolling samples, panel survey, annual inventory, FIA, weighted average

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page