Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

 Due to a lapse in federal funding, this USDA website will not be actively updated. Once funding has been reestablished, online operations will continue.


  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Gerald E. RehfeldtNicholas L. Crookston; Pierre Duval; Remi St-Amant; Jean Beaulieu; Bryce A. Richardson
    Date: 2010
    Source: Climatic Change. 102: 595-623
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (2.25 MB)

    Description

    Spatial climate models were developed for Mexico and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961-1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1°C for temperature and 10-15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5°C by year 2030, 2.3°C by year 2060 and 3.7°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease -6.7% by year 2030, -9.0% by year 2060 and -18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant-climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacan State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacan Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicholas L.; Duval, Pierre; St-Amant, Remi; Beaulieu, Jean; Richardson, Bryce A. 2010. Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060, and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change. 102: 595-623.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    spline models, spatial climate models, Mexico

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/36311