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    Author(s): H.K. Preisler; R.E. Burgan; J.C. Eidenshink; J.M. Klaver; R.W. Klaver
    Date: 2009
    Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 508-516
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (981.43 KB)


    The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index – an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale – in forecasting distributions of large fires.

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    Preisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, J.M.; Klaver, R.W. 2009. Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18:508-516.


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    fire business, fire danger, fire distribution, fire mapping, fire occurrence, semi-parametric logistic regression, spatial mapping, statistical comparisons of fire danger indices.

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