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Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather informationAuthor(s): H.K. Preisler; R.E. Burgan; J.C. Eidenshink; J.M. Klaver; R.W. Klaver
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 508-516
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
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DescriptionThe current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index – an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale – in forecasting distributions of large fires.
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CitationPreisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, J.M.; Klaver, R.W. 2009. Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18:508-516.
Keywordsfire business, fire danger, fire distribution, fire mapping, fire occurrence, semi-parametric logistic regression, spatial mapping, statistical comparisons of fire danger indices.
- Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires
- Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States
- Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
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