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    Author(s): James F. FowlerCarolyn Hull Sieg; Joel McMillin; Kurt K. Allen; Jose F. Negron; Linda L. Wadleigh; John A. Anhold; Ken E. Gibson
    Date: 2010
    Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 19: 583-588.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    PDF: View PDF  (350.03 KB)

    Description

    Previous research has shown that crown scorch volume and crown consumption volume are the major predictors of post-fire mortality in ponderosa pine. In this study, we use piecewise logistic regression models of crown scorch data from 6633 trees in five wildfires from the Intermountain West to locate a mortality threshold at 88% scorch by volume for trees with no crown consumption. For trees with >40% crown consumption volume, linear regression indicates >85% mortality, but for trees with crown consumption volume <40%, there is a statistically significant, linear relationship between increasing crown scorch and increasing probability of mortality. Analysis of an independent 600+ tree dataset from Colorado produced similar results and supports the analysis approach. Crown scorch volume (>85%), crown consumption volume (>40%), and crown consumption between 5 and 40% combined with crown scorch volume >50% mortality thresholds could be incorporated into post-fire marking guidelines for forest management goals.

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    Citation

    Fowler, James F.; Sieg, Carolyn Hull; McMillin, Joel; Allen, Kurt K.; Negron, Jose F.; Wadleigh, Linda L.; Anhold, John A.; Gibson, Ken E. 2010. Development of post-fire crown damage mortality thresholds in ponderosa pine. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 19: 583-588.

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    Keywords

    crown consumption, crown scorch, logistic regression, marking guidelines, piecewise regression, Pinus ponderosa, statistical models, wildfire

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/37069