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    Author(s): Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie
    Date: 2010
    Source: In: Jain, Theresa B.; Graham, Russell T.; Sandquist, Jonathan. Integrated management of carbon sequestration and biomass utilization opportunities in a changing climate: Proceedings of the 2009 National Silviculture Workshop; 2009 June 15-18; Boise, ID. Proceedings RMRS-P-61. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 321-336.
    Publication Series: Proceedings (P)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (401.17 KB)

    Description

    In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a state-and-transition model (STM) with the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT), using outputs from the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Preside, a recently developed accessory to the FVS program, is used to process and report FVS outputs in terms of succession probabilities and residence times for each STM. We’ve applied these tools with a case study based on the pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona. After applying local probability values for natural growth, contemporary fire, insect and disease, and management activities, VDDT simulations were conducted to project future ecosystem conditions including carbon accounting. Finally, we also describe how these models can be retooled with FVS support to reflect the effects of climate change so that managers can consider adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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    Citation

    Weisz, Reuben; Triepke, Jack; Vandendriesche, Don; Manthei, Mike; Youtz, Jim; Simon, Jerry; Robbie, Wayne. 2010. Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona. In: Jain, Theresa B.; Graham, Russell T.; Sandquist, Jonathan. Integrated management of carbon sequestration and biomass utilization opportunities in a changing climate: Proceedings of the 2009 National Silviculture Workshop; 2009 June 15-18; Boise, ID. Proceedings RMRS-P-61. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 321-336.

    Keywords

    silviculture, carbon sequestration, climate change, forest management

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/37339