Skip to Main Content
Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation historyAuthor(s): Adrian J. Duehl; Frank H. Koch; Fred P. Hain
Source: Forest Ecology and Management 261:473–479
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
PDF: Download Publication (261.22 KB)
DescriptionThe southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) is the major insect pest of pine species in the southeastern United States. It attains outbreak population levels sufficient to mass attack host pines across the landscape at scales ranging from a single forest stand to interstate epidemics. This county level analysis selected and examined the best climatic and landscape variables for predicting infestations at regional scales. The analysis showed that, for a given county, the most important factor in predicting outbreaks was that the county was classified as in outbreak status in the previous year. Other important factors included minimum winter temperature and the greatest difference between the average of daily minimums and a subsequent low temperature point, precipitation history either seasonally in the previous year or difference from average over the previous 2 years, the synchronizing effect of seasonal temperatures on beetle populations and the relative percentage of total forest area composed of host species. The statistical models showed that climatic variables are stronger indicators of outbreak likelihood than landscape structure and cover variables. Average climatic conditions were more likely to lead to outbreaks than extreme conditions, supporting the notion of coupling between a native insect and its native host. Still, some extreme events (i.e., periods of very low temperature or very high precipitation) did precede beetle infestation. This analysis suggested that there are predisposing and inciting factors at the large scale but the driving factors leading to individual infestations operate at smaller scales.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationDuehl, Adrian J.; Koch, Frank H.; Hain, Fred P. 2011. Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history. Forest Ecology and Management 261:473–479.
KeywordsClassification and Regression Tree, Insect infestation, Logistic regression, Dendroctonus frontalis, Pinus taeda
- Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon
- Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
- Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)
XML: View XML