Skip to Main Content
Due to a lapse in federal funding, this USDA website will not be actively updated. Once funding has been reestablished, online operations will continue.
Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest productsAuthor(s): Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno
Source: Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40(11):2069-2081
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
View PDF (432.54 KB)
DescriptionThe relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We estimated the effect of this exchange rate volatility on export quantity and price with autoregressive distributed lag models based on monthly data of US exports and prices to 14 countries for eight commodity groups. The most general and statistically significant results were obtained by pooling the time series data across destination countries and products. They suggested that an increase in exchange rate variability of 1% led to a short-run decrease in export quantity of 0.3%-0.4% and to a short-run decrease in export price of 0.1%. Both the quantity and the price effect faded away over time. The effects were less systematic and statistically significant for specific export destinations or individual products. Thus, in contrast with exchange rate level, exchange rate volatility may not be a major policy issue for US forest product exports.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationZhang, Sijia; Buongiorno, Joseph. 2010. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40(11):2069-2081.
- Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: evidence from panel data
- Bilateral foreign direct investment in forest industry between the U.S. and Canada
- The impacts of the Lacey Act Amendment of 2008 on U.S.hardwood lumber and hardwood plywood imports
XML: View XML