Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people
Caring for the land and serving people
United States Department of Agriculture
-
Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change
Author(s): Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw
Date: 2011
Source: Ecosphere. 2(9): Article 102.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
PDF: View PDF (2.22 MB)Description
The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how forests might work in the future and thus guide decision-making. Ecosystem models can be used to develop forest management strategies that anticipate these changes, but limited experience with models and model output is a challenge for managers in thinking about how to address potential effects of climate change. What do decision makers need to know about climate models, ecological models used for impacts assessments, and the uncertainty in model projections in order to use model output in strategies for adaptation to climate change? We present approaches for understanding and reducing the uncertainty associated with modeling the effects of climate change on ecosystems, focusing on multi-model approaches to clarify the strengths and limits of projections and minimize vulnerability to undesirable consequences of climate change. Scientific uncertainties about changes in climate or projections of their impacts on resources do not present fundamental barriers to management and adaptation to climate change. Instead, many of these uncertainties can be controlled by characterizing their effects on models and future projections from those models. There is uncertainty in decision making that does not derive just from the complex interaction of climate and ecosystem models, but in how modeling is integrated with other aspects of the decision environment such as choice of objectives, monitoring, and approach to assessment. Adaptive management provides a hedge against uncertainty, such that climate and ecosystem models can inform decision making.Publication Notes
- You may send email to pnw_pnwpubs@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
Citation
Littell, Jeremy S.; McKenzie, Donald; Kerns, Becky K.; Cushman, Samuel; Shaw, Charles G. 2011. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change. Ecosphere. 2(9): Article 102.Cited
Keywords
adaptation, climate change, climate models, decision making under uncertainty, empirical models, landscape models, process models, uncertainty, vegetation modelsRelated Search
- Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: A guide to initiating the adaptation planning process
- Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training
- Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves
XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39230