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Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM ModelAuthor(s): Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog
Source: Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 00 (2012) 1-27.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Forest Products Laboratory
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Economic Model Predicts U.S. Forest Product Markets and Timber Demand Trends
DescriptionA U.S. forest sector market module was developed within the general Global Forest Products Model. The U.S. module tracks regional timber markets, timber harvests by species group, and timber product outputs in greater detail than does the global model. This hybrid approach provides detailed regional market analysis for the United States although retaining the broader global market analysis. We describe how the U.S. Forest Products Module is structured within the global model and show projections based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios with long-range assumptions about economic activity, population growth, and wood energy demands. Results show that real prices for industrial roundwood would increase as a result of significant global expansion in wood energy demands. Expansion of global wood energy demands would influence the comparative economic advantages of U.S. versus foreign producers, with U.S. producers gaining some comparative advantages and increased net exports in scenarios where average foreign industrial roundwood prices are projected to increase more than in the United States. These results suggest that national wood energy policies should consider how the impacts of wood energy use on domestic forest product markets depend on trends in global forest product markets.
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CitationInce, Peter J.; Kramp, Andrew; Skog, Kenneth E. 2012. Evaluating economic impacts of expanded global wood energy consumption with the USFPM/GFPM model. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 60: 211-237. DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2012.01249.x.
KeywordsEconomics, USFPM/GFPM model, wood energy consumption.
- U.S. forest products module : a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment
- Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption
- Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
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