Skip to Main Content
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USAAuthor(s): J. Roads; F. Fujioka; S. Chen; R. Burgan
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 14: 1-18
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Download Publication (2.06 MB)
DescriptionThe Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (DFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning index (BI), spread component (SC), and the Keetch-Byram drought index (DB). The Fosberg fire weather index, which is a simplified form of the BI, has been previously used not only for the USA but also for other global regions and is thus included for comparison. As will be shown, all of these indices can be predicted well at weekly times scales and there is even skill out to seasonal time scales over many US West locations. The most persistent indices (BI and ER) tend to have the greatest seasonal forecast skill. The NFDRS indices also have a weak relation to observed fire characteristics such as fire counts and acres burned, especially when the validation fire danger indices are used.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationRoads, J.; Fujioka, F.; Chen, S.; Burgan, R. 2005. Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 14: 1-18.
- NCEP-ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts
- ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts
- Seasonal predictions for wildland fire severity
XML: View XML