Skip to Main Content
Due to a lapse in federal funding, this USDA website will not be actively updated. Once funding has been reestablished, online operations will continue.
Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitatsAuthor(s): Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary Yohe
Source: Climatic Change. 114: 231-243.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
View PDF (446.98 KB)
Related Research Highlights
Ash Trees at the Confluence of Two Threats: Emerald Ash Borer and Climate Change
Assessing Climate Change Risk to Eastern Forests Using Climate Change Tree Atlas Data
DescriptionWe present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in suitable habitatmodeled at various times during this century. Consequences are related to the adaptability of the species to cope with the changes, especially the increasing intensity and/or frequency of disturbance events that are projected. We derived consequence scores from nine biological and 12 disturbance characteristics that were pulled from literature for each species. All data were generated from an atlas of climate change for 134 trees of the eastern United States (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas). We show examples which depict a wide range of risk for tree species of northern Wisconsin, including species that may gain substantial habitat as well as lose substantial habitat, both of which will require the development of strategies to help the ecosystems adapt to such changes.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationIverson, Louis R.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Yohe, Gary. 2012. Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats. Climatic Change. 114: 231-243.
- Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.
- Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors
- A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States
XML: View XML