Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub

    Description

    A relationship between the likelihood of wildfires and various drought metrics (soil moisture-based fire potential indices) were examined over the southern part of Mississippi. The following three indices were tested and used to simulate spatial and temporal wildfire probability changes: (1) the accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P - E); (2) simulated moisture content of the top 10 cm of soil; and (3) the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). These indices were estimated from gridded meterological data and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). The relationships between normalized fire potential index deviations and the probability of at least one fire occurring during the following five consecutive days were evaluated using a 23-year (1986-2008) forest fire record for an evenly spaced grid (0.25° x 0.25°) across the state of Mississippi's coastal plain. Two periods were selected and examined (January-mid June and mid September-December). There was good agreement between the observed and logistic model-ftted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire potential indices based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI had the largest impact on wildfire odds, increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire potential index during January-mid-June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid-September-December. These results suggest that soil moisture-based fire potential indices are good indicators of fire occurrence probability across this region.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy V.; Anantharaj, Valentine G.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2012. Wildfire potential mapping over the state of Mississippi: A land surface modeling approach. GIScience and Remote Sensing. 49(4): 492-509.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    wildfire, mapping, land surface modeling, soil moisture

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/41396