Skip to Main Content
Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatmentsAuthor(s): M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 21: 357-367.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
Download Publication (886.9 KB)
DescriptionHuman land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationCochrane, M. A.; Moran, C. J.; Wimberly, M. C.; Baer, A. D.; Finney, M. A.; Beckendorf, K. L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z. 2012. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 21: 357-367.
KeywordsFARSITE, fire behaviour, fire extent, fire management, fire modelling, fire risk, fire spread
- Science basis for changing forest structure to modify wildfire behavior and severity
- Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA
- Economic optimisation of wildfire intervention activities
XML: View XML