Skip to Main Content
A framework for developing foresight in natural resource managementAuthor(s): Kay E. Strong
Source: In: Bengston, David N., comp. 2012. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 18-24.
Publication Series: Proceedings - Paper (PR-P)
Station: Northern Research Station
PDF: View PDF (80.33 KB)
DescriptionThis paper describes a fundamental framework for anticipating and influencing the future that has been used to prepare professional futurists at the University of Houston for more than 35 years. The overview of the framework addresses how futures researchers organize information about changes in the world (e.g., by defining the domain, or scope, of the forecasting topic and identifying drivers of future change). Specific techniques to develop foresight, including environmental scanning and trend analysis, are discussed. The paper summarizes the three kinds of futures typically explored: the probable future, plausible alternatives, and preferable futures, whether centered on individuals, organizations, or society at large. Plausible futures are among many aspects of futures forecasting where scenarios can be used. Definitions and descriptions of scenarios are provided. Th e process of developing scenarios is illustrated, and their purpose in the forecasting framework is presented.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
CitationStrong, Kay E. 2012. A Framework for developing foresight in natural resource management. In: Bengston, David N., comp. 2012. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 18-24.
Keywordsstrategic foresight, scenarios, trends, forecasting, change, environmental scanning
- An approach to the future
- Forecasts of forest conditions in regions of the United States under future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2012 RPA Assessment
- Futures research: A neglected dimension in environmental policy and planning
XML: View XML