Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Jeffrey P. Prestemon; María L. Chas-Amil; Julia M. Touza; Scott L. Goodrick
    Date: 2012
    Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire 21:743–754
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Southern Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (245.85 KB)

    Description

    We report daily time series models containing both temporal and spatiotemporal lags, which are applied to forecasting intentional wildfires in Galicia, Spain. Models are estimated independently for each of the 19 forest districts in Galicia using a 1999–2003 training dataset and evaluated out-of-sample with a 2004–06 dataset. Poisson autoregressive models of order P – PAR(P) models – significantly out-perform competing alternative models over both in-sample and out-of-sample datasets, reducing out-of-sample root-mean-squared errors by an average of 15%. PAR(P) and static Poisson models included covariates deriving from crime theory, including the temporal and spatiotemporal autoregressive time series components. Estimates indicate highly significant autoregressive components, lasting up to 3 days, and spatiotemporal autoregression, lasting up to 2 days. Models also applied to predict the effect of increased arrest rates for illegal intentional firesetting indicate that the direct long-run effect of an additional firesetting arrest, summed across forest districts in Galicia, is –139.6 intentional wildfires, equivalent to a long-run elasticity of –0.94.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to pubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Chas-Amil, María L.; Touza, Julia M.; Goodrick, Scott L. 2012. Forecasting intentional wildfires using temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelations. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21:743–754.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    arrest, arson, autoregressive, green crime, Galicia, incendiary, Poisson, Spain, time series

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page