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    Author(s): Carol MillerAlan A. Ager
    Date: 2012
    Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 1-14.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (805.27 KB)

    Description

    Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk – likelihood, intensity and effects – this paper reviews recent advances in quantifying and integrating these individual components of fire risk. We also review recent advances in addressing temporal dynamics of fire risk and spatial optimization of fuels management activities. Risk analysis approaches have become increasingly quantitative and sophisticated but remain quite disparate. We suggest several necessary and fruitful directions for future research and development in wildfire risk analysis.

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    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Miller, Carol; Ager, Alan A. 2012. A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 1-14.

    Keywords

    burn probability, fire likelihood, hazard, risk assessment, risk assessment and analysis, risk science, technical reports and journal articles

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