A deterministic model of succession in aspen forests was developed using existing data and intuition. The degree of uncertainty, which was determined by allowing the parameter values to vary at random within limits, was larger than desired. This report presents results of an analysis of model sensitivity to changes in parameter values. These results have indicated areas of needed research. The model responds realistically to various management techniques and could be an aid to resource managers in their decisionmaking process.
Bartos, Dale L.; Ward, Frederick R.; Innis, George S. 1983. Aspen succession in the Intermountain West: A deterministic model. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-153. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 60 p.