Skip to Main Content
Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialistAuthor(s): Quresh S. Latif; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley; Jeff P. Hollenbeck
Source: Ecology and Evolution. 3(13): 4348-4364
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
View PDF (1.03 MB)
DescriptionTo conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can be unclear (Northwestern U.S.A.). We predicted habitat suitability for nesting Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus; a burned-forest specialist) at 20 recently (<6 years postwildfire) burned locations in Montana using models calibrated with data from three locations in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. We developed 8 models using three techniques (weighted logistic regression, Maxent, and Mahalanobis D2 models) and various combinations of four environmental variables describing burn severity, the northsouth orientation of topographic slope, and prefire canopy cover. After translating model predictions into binary classifications (0 = low suitability to unsuitable, 1 = high to moderate suitability), we compiled "ensemble predictions," consisting of the number of models (0-8) predicting any given site as highly suitable. The suitability status for 40% of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was consistent across models and therefore robust to uncertainty in the relative accuracy of particular models and in alternative ecological hypotheses they described. Ensemble predictions exhibited two desirable properties: (1) a positive relationship with apparent rates of nest occurrence at calibration locations and (2) declining model agreement outside surveyed environments consistent with our reduced confidence in novel (i.e., "no-analogue") environments. Areas of disagreement among models suggested where future surveys could help validate and refine models for an improved understanding of Black-backed Woodpecker nesting habitat relationships. Ensemble predictions presented here can help guide managers attempting to balance salvage logging with habitat conservation in burned-forest landscapes where black-backed woodpecker nest location data are not immediately available. Ensemble modeling represents a promising tool for guiding conservation of large-scale disturbance specialists.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationLatif, Quresh S.; Saab, Victoria A.; Dudley, Jonathan G.; Hollenbeck, Jeff P. 2013. Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialist. Ecology and Evolution. 3(13): 4348-4364
Keywordsblack-backed Woodpeckers, forested habitat management, habitat suitability models, Mahalanobis D2 models, Maxent models, model prediction in no-analogue environments, Picoides arcticus, resource selection models, species distribution models, wildfire
- Transferability of habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers associated with wildfire
- Habitat suitability models for cavity-nesting birds in a postfire landscape
- Evaluating habitat suitability models for nesting white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forest
XML: View XML