Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub

    Description

    The perceived threat of climate change is often evaluated from species distribution models that are fitted to many species independently and then added together. This approach ignores the fact that species are jointly distributed and limit one another. Species respond to the same underlying climatic variables, and the abundance of any one species can be constrained by competition; a large increase in one is inevitably linked to declines of others. Omitting this basic relationship explains why responses modeled independently do not agree with the species richness or basal areas of actual forests. We introduce a joint species distribution modeling approach (JSDM), which is unique in three ways, and apply it to forests of eastern North America. First, it accommodates the joint distribution of species. Second, this joint distribution includes both abundance and presence-absence data. We solve the common issue of large numbers of zeros in abundance data by accommodating zeros in both stem counts and basal area data, i.e., a new approach to zero inflation. Finally, inverse prediction can be applied to the joint distribution of predictions to integrate the role of climate risks across all species and identify geographic areas where communities will change most (in terms of changes in abundance) with climate change. Application to forests in the eastern United States shows that climate can have greatest impact in the Northeast, due to temperature, and in the Upper Midwest, due to temperature and precipitation. Thus, these are the regions experiencing the fastest warming and are also identified as most responsive at this scale.

    Publication Notes

    • Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
    • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
    • During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
    • Please contact Sharon Hobrla, shobrla@fs.fed.us if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Clark, James S.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zhu, Kai. 2014. More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models. Ecological Applications. 24(5): 990-999.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    biodiversity, climate change, species abundance, species distributions, species occurrence, species presence/absence, zero inflation

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page