Skip to Main Content
Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travelAuthor(s): Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Robert A. Haack; Roger D. Magarey
Source: PLoS ONE 9(7): e102105
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Southern Research Station
PDF: Download Publication (1.08 MB)
Related Research Highlights
Examining the Role of Humans in the Spread of Invasive Species
DescriptionLong-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationKoch, Frank H.; Yemshanov, Denys; Haack, Robert A.; Magarey, Roger D. 2014. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102105. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0102105.
- Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal
- Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis
- Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective
XML: View XML