Skip to Main Content
Applicability of predictive models of drought-induced tree mortality between the midwest and northeast United StatesAuthor(s): Eric J. Gustafson
Source: Forest Science. 60(2): 327-334.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (283.29 KB)
DescriptionRegression models developed in the upper Midwest (United States) to predict drought-induced tree mortality from measures of drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index) were tested in the northeastern United States and found inadequate. The most likely cause of this result is that long drought events were rare in the Northeast during the period when inventory data were available. Therefore, new predictive models of drought mortality for the Northeast were built using USDA Forest Service inventory data and national climate data from 1969 to 2007. The Standardized Precipitation Index was better correlated with tree mortality in the Northeast than the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and new models were estimated. The reliability of the northeast models varied considerably by drought-sensitivity class, with the model for drought-intolerant species being particularly suspect. I argue that the Midwest models may nevertheless have some value in the Northeast because my tests were unable to cover the range of drought conditions under which the models were developed, there is no obvious reason why the same species should respond differently in a very similar ecological province, and some northeast models are very weak.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationGustafson, Eric J. 2014. Applicability of predictive models of drought-induced tree mortality between the midwest and northeast United States. Forest Science. 60(2): 327-334.
Keywordsdrought stress, climate change, forest biomass, Northeastern Mixed Forest Province, Laurentian mixed forest province
- Assessment of the 1998–2001 drought impact on forest health in southeastern forests: an analysis of drought severity using FHM data
- Assessment of drought related mortality in pinyon-juniper and ponderosa pine forests using Forest Inventory and Analysis data
- Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change
XML: View XML