Skip to Main Content
Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimatesAuthor(s): Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall
Source: Forest Science. 60(1): 34-42.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (261.08 KB)
DescriptionForest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model residual variability and model parameter uncertainty on large area volume estimates and their uncertainties for a study area in northeastern Minnesota, USA. Monte Carlo simulation approaches were used because of the complexities associated with multiple sources of uncertainty and the nonlinear nature of the models. Two conclusions were important. First, for this study, the effects of uncertainty in model predictions on the large area volume estimates and their uncertainties were small when the models were calibrated using an average of 100 or more observations per species and when the average proportion of variance explained by the models was at least 0.95. Second, large area estimates and their uncertainties based on coniferous/deciduous and nonspecific models deviated very little from large area estimates based on species-specific models.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationMcRoberts, Ronald E.; Westfall, James A. 2014. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates. Forest Science. 60(1): 34-42.
Keywordsallometric model, model parameter uncertainty, residual uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation
- The effects of uncertainty in individual tree volume model predictions on large area estimates of forest volume
- A general method for assessing the effects of uncertainty in individual-tree volume model predictions on large-area volume estimates with a subtropical forest illustration
- Propagating uncertainty through individual tree volume model predictions to large-area volume estimates
XML: View XML