More rain, more drought: will the forests thrive or die?Author(s): Sally Duncan
Source: Science Findings. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. May (14): 1-5
Publication Series: Science Findings
Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
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DescriptionGlobal warming: Is it real or not? Ron Neilson, PNW Research Station bioclimatologist, has been studying the phenomena for about 25 years. He also is the lead author on one of three models in the world designed to track climate-driven vegetation change patterns on the planet.
Neilson's findings, featured in this issue of "Science Findings," may be able to assist land managers to prepare for global warming impacts. Neilson and his colleagues developed a model called the mapped atmosphere-plant-soil system (MAPSS).
The MAPSS model can simulate changes in vegetation distribution and runoff under altered climate and carbon dioxide concentration. Key findings from Neilson's work reveal that the Pacific Northwest is an area of uncertainty.
Other key findings reveal that there is a shifting of vegetation to the north, dieback of boreal forests, and continued warming temperatures that have the potential to strain water resources. Future forest management plans should take into account the range of possibilities under climate change scenarios.
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CitationDuncan, Sally. 1999. More rain, more drought: will the forests thrive or die?. Science Findings. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. May (14): 1-5
- Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest
- Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.
- 2007 Science Accomplishments Report of the Pacific Northwest Research Station.
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