Skip to Main Content
A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply systemAuthor(s): Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown
Source: Climatic Change. 125(3-4): 413-427.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
Download Publication (887.79 KB)
Related Research Highlights
Mean Annual Water Supply for the Contiguous U.S. Updated
DescriptionWe introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationFoti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C. 2014. A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system. Climatic Change. 125(3-4): 413-427.
Keywordsclimate change, probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis, US water supply
- Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: The Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California
- New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project
- Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States
XML: View XML