Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Projecting potential adoption of genetically engineered freeze-tolerant Eucalyptus in the United States

    Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): David N. Wear; Ernest Dixon IV; Robert C. Abt; Navinder Singh
    Date: 2015
    Source: Forest Science
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Southern Research Station
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.5849/forsci.14-089
    PDF: View PDF  (1.0 MB)

    Description

    Development of commercial Eucalyptus plantations has been limited in the United States because of the species’ sensitivity to freezing temperatures. Recently developed genetically engineered clones of a Eucalyptus hybrid, which confer freeze tolerance, could expand the range of commercial plantations. This study explores how freeze-tolerant Eucalyptus might be adopted as a preferred land use based on comparative returns and a real options land-use switching model. Climate factors other than freezing are assumed to limit potential adoption to the southeastern region of the United States. Comparison of returns indicates that Eucalyptus would probably not compete with cropland but could be competitive with forest uses, especially planted pine. Real options analysis, using both geometric Brownian motion and mean reverting models of stochastic returns, indicates that switching could be expected on a portion of planted pine forestland. Models predict about 0.8 –1.4 million acres of Eucalyptus plantations (5–9% of the current area of planted pine). Extending the analysis to also consider the current area of naturally regenerated pine results in as much as 2.8 million acres of Eucalyptus. Actual adoption will probably depend on uncertain future markets for cellulose, especially for bioenergy feedstock.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to pubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Wear, David N.; Dixon IV, Ernest; Abt, Robert C.; Singh, Navinder. 2015. Projecting potential adoption of genetically engineered freeze-tolerant <I>Eucalyptus</I> in the United States. Forest Science, Vol. 61(3): 15 pages.: 466-480. 10.5849/forsci.14-089

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    real options, investment analysis, genetically modified organism (GMO), bioenergy

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page