Skip to Main Content
Due to a lapse in federal funding, this USDA website will not be actively updated. Once funding has been reestablished, online operations will continue.
The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st centuryAuthor(s): Daniel J. Isaak; Michael K. Young; David E. Nagel; Dona L. Horan; Matthew C. Groce
Source: Global Change Biology. 21: 2540-2553.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
View PDF (1.0 MB)
DescriptionThe distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold-water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non-native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd-sourced biological datasets with high-resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids-bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33-68 BT refugia; 917-1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conservation networks. Using cold water as a 'climate shield' is generalizable to other species and geographic areas because it has a strong physiological basis, relies on nationally available geospatial data, and mines existing biological datasets. Importantly, the approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks needed to preserve many cold-water fish populations through the 21st century.
Related website:Climate Shield Cold-Water Refuge Streams for Native Trout
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationIsaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Nagel, David E.; Horan, Dona L.; Groce, Matthew C. 2015. The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century. Global Change Biology. 21: 2540-2553.
Keywordsbull trout, climate change, cutthroat trout, invasive species, refugia, salmonid, species distribution, stream temperature
- Cold water as a climate shield to preserve native trout through the 21st Century
- Geography of invasion in mountain streams: consequences of headwater lake fish introductions
- Fine-scale environmental DNA sampling reveals climate-mediated interactions between native and invasive trout species
XML: View XML