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    Author(s): Matthew P. Thompson
    Date: 2015
    Source: In: Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 317-319.
    Publication Series: Proceedings (P)
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (379.05 KB)

    Description

    The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments, even well-trained and experienced individuals can become susceptible to cognitive limitations and decision biases, as indicated by several recent analyses of fire manager decision making. This extended abstract focuses on fire management decision making under uncertainty, in relation to current decision support provided by the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), offering several recommendations to improve decision content and process.

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    Citation

    Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). In: Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 317-319.

    Keywords

    fire ecology, fire behavior, smoke management, fire management, social and political consequences

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49488