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Potential species replacements for black ash (Fraxinus nigra) at the confluence of two threats: Emerald ash borer and a changing climateAuthor(s): Louis Iverson; Kathleen S. Knight; Anantha Prasad; Daniel A. Herms; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Annemarie Smith; Diane M. Hartzler; Robert Long; John Almendinger
Source: Ecosystems. 19: 248-270. doi: 10.1007/s10021-015-9929-y.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
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DescriptionThe emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; EAB) is causing widespread mortality of ash (Fraxinus spp.) and climate change is altering habitats of tree species throughout large portions of North America. Black ash (F. nigra), a moist-soil species common in the Northwoods of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, USA, is under a double threat of losing habitat from climate change and near annihilation from EAB. Because black ash often occurs in nearly pure stands, planting non-ash species is a management strategy already underway or being planned for thousands of acres. Tools are needed to assist managers in prioritizing sites for early treatment and to select potential species to replace black ash. This study explores the implications of threats to black ash ecosystems using analyses of field data andmodels to assess both the threats to, and potential replacement species for, black ash in Minnesota. For our analysis we (1) assessed the status of ashes and co-occurring species inforest inventory plots throughout Minnesota; (2) modeled the risk of EAB attack for multiple years in Minnesota; (3) modeled potential impacts of climate change on tree species with current or potential future habitat in Minnesota; (4) evaluated species co-occurring with black ash in plots in Ohio and Michigan, southeast of Minnesota; and (5) synthesized these results to provide a classification for candidate replacement species, both from within Minnesota and from points farther south. Though this process is demonstrated for black ash in Minnesota, the elements to be considered and modeled would be similar for any other location with a pest or pathogen threat for a species which simultaneously faces a changing climate.
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CitationIverson, Louis; Knight, Kathleen S.; Prasad, Anantha; Herms, Daniel A.; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew; Smith, Annemarie; Hartzler, Diane M.; Long, Robert; Almendinger, John. 2015. Potential species replacements for black ash (Fraxinus nigra) at the confluence of two threats: Emerald ash borer and a changing climate. Ecosystems. 19: 248-270. doi: 10.1007/s10021-015-9929-y.
Keywordsassisted range expansion, invasive insect spread model, climate change, emerald ash borer, multiple forest threats, restoration, species distribution models
- Wide-spread vulnerability of black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) wetlands in Minnesota USA to loss of tree dominance from invasive emerald ash borer
- Eighth-year survival and growth of planted replacement tree species in black ash (Fraxinus nigra) wetlands threatened by emerald ash borer in Minnesota, USA
- Evaluating Adaptive Management Options for Black Ash Forests in the Face of Emerald Ash Borer Invasion
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