Skip to Main Content
Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reservesAuthor(s): Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight
Source: Biological Conservation. 193: 103-114.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (1.0 MB)
Related Research Highlights
Trees Vulnerable to Damage from Acid Deposition Located Using Critical Load Exceedance Maps
DescriptionIncorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation planning approach for situations of high uncertainty. We developed dynamic, linked habitat suitability and metapopulation models using RAMAS GIS to consider management and monitoring options for a grassland reserve in Minnesota (USA) in order to support a hydrologically sensitive rare orchid (Cypripedium candidum).We evaluated 54 future scenarios combining changes in drought frequency, increased depth to water table, and multiple configurations of increased invasive species cover and management. Simulation results allowed us to prioritize adaptation strategies and monitoring guidelines to inform adaptive management for our model system. For example, preventing further spread of invasive species into the current C. candidum population is an important low-risk resilience strategy for this site. However, under more serious climate change scenarios, higher-risk strategies, such as protecting critical recharge areas, become essential. Additionally, allocating limited monitoring resources toward detecting changes in depth to water table and assessing C. candidum population responses to severe drought will more efficiently inform decisions about when to shift from low-risk resilience approaches to higher-risk resistance and facilitation strategies. Applying this scenario-based modeling approach to other high-priority populations will enable conservation decision-makers to develop sound, cost-effective, site-specific management and monitoring protocols despite the uncertainties of climate change.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationPhillips-Mao, Laura; Galatowitsch, Susan M.; Snyder, Stephanie A.; Haight, Robert G. 2016. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves. Biological Conservation. 193: 103-114.
KeywordsCypripedium candidum, abitat suitability, Metapopulation model, Monitoring, Invasion, Rare plants
- Restoring the rare Kentucky lady's slipper orchid to the Kisatchie National Forest
- Pollen-pistil interactions in North American and Chinese Cypripedium L. (Orchidaceae)
- Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change
XML: View XML