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Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industriesAuthor(s): Joseph Buongiorno
Source: Forest Ecosystems
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Southern Research Station
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DescriptionBackground: This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global
forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].
Methods: Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising
[CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B, A2, and B2.
Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production, consumption, prices, and trade of products
ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario, with and
without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065.
Results: CO2 fertilization increased wood supply, leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest
lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However, production and value added in industries
decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2
Conclusion: The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to
10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in
part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased
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CitationBuongiorno, Joseph. 2015. Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries. Forest Ecosystems, Vol. 2(1): 13 p. DOI 10.1186/s40663-015-0054-3
KeywordsCO2 fertilization, Climate change, Prices, Supply, Demand, International trade
- Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change
- Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
- Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment
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