Skip to Main Content
A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring systemAuthor(s): Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters
Source: Landscape Ecology. 31: 2187-2204. doi: 10.1007/s10980-016-0369-7 18 p.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
View PDF (2.0 MB)
DescriptionContext. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and knowledgebased scoring system--MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework. Methods. Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes. Results. Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible. Conclusion. The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationPrasad, Anantha M.; Iverson, Louis R.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P. 2016. A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system. Landscape Ecology. 31: 2187-2204. doi: 10.1007/s10980-016-0369-7
KeywordsDecision support system, Tree habitat suitability model, Tree species migration model, Tree species distribution model, Forest management, Climate change
- Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services
- Effect of Sugar Maple Root Exudate on Seedlings of Northern Conifer Species
- European settlement-era vegetation of the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia
XML: View XML