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    Natural resource policymakers and planners increasingly rely on regional and national-level spatial data describing projections of future housing growth, to anticipate development impacts on natural resources and identify policy and planning needs. Such projections have not always been well-grounded in demographic and other factors that influence population and thus housing growth. We develop an empirical model describing population change and housing growth in the rural Midwestern U.S., as a function of demographic transition, socioeconomic factors, and natural amenities. The empirical model is estimated as a set of three equations characterizing: (1) population growth within three age groups, (2) the influence of farmland cover and other county level variables, and (3) household size, housing services, and second home ownership. The estimated population and housing growth models provide a consistent estimate of past change and can be used to project future change. We found age-structure to be an important factor in housing location decisions. Specifically, the influence of natural amenities on both population growth within counties and subsequent housing density changes varies by age group.

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    Lee, Yohan; Montgomery, Claire A.; Kline, Jeffrey D. 2016. The influence of age-specific migration on housing growth in the rural Midwest (USA). Landscape and Urban Planning. 148: 68–79


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    age-specific migration, housing density change, natural amenities, projection

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