Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. ThompsonJacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak
    Date: 2016
    Source: Landscape Ecology. 31:149-163.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Northern Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (1.0 MB)


    Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape modeling approach that incorporated three levels of spatial hierarchy (pixel, landtype, and ecological subsection) to model regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change. To determine (1) how importance value of individual species will change under the PCM B1 and GFDL A1FI modeling scenarios and (2) how overall forest composition at different spatial scales will change under these climate change scenarios in the short, medium, and long term in the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR). We used LANDIS PRO to predict forest composition changes from 2000 to 2300 accounting for climate change, population dynamics, dispersal, and harvest in the CHFR. We analyzed forest composition shifts under alternative climate scenarios and at multiple spatial scales. Shifts in forest composition were greater under the GFDL A1FI than the PCM B1 modeling scenarios and were greatest at the scale of ecological sections followed by forest sub-regions and the whole CHFR. Forest composition shifted toward more southern and xeric species and lesser northern and mesic species. We suggest it is essential to include site- and landscape-scale processes in models and to evaluate changes at multiple spatial and temporal scales when evaluating changes in species composition due to climate change and disturbance.

    Publication Notes

    • Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
    • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
    • During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
    • Please contact Sharon Hobrla, if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.


    Wang, Wen J.; He, Hong S.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Fraser, Jacob S.; Dijak, William D. 2016. Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States. Landscape Ecology. 31:149-163.


    Google Scholar


    Abundance, Harvest, Succession, Demography, LANDIS PRO, U.S. Forest Service Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page