Skip to Main Content
Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60Author(s): Jeff Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon IV; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Southern Research Station
Download Publication (584.0 KB)
Related Research Highlights
Future Wildfire in the South will be Driven by Society as well as Climate Change
DescriptionFuture changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.Weestimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992–2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, forest land use, human population and personal income. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060 under nine climate realisations, using a combination of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-based emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) and three general circulation models. Monte Carlo simulation quantifies ranges in projected area burned by county by year, and in total for higher-level spatial aggregations. Projections indicated, overall in the Southeast, that median annual area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire increases by 34%, human-ignited wildfire decreases by 6%, and total wildfire increases by4%by 2056–60 compared with 2016–20. Total wildfire changes vary widely by state (47 to þ30%) and ecoregion province (73 to þ79%). Our analyses could be used to generate projections of wildfire-generated air pollutant exposures, relevant to meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationPrestemon, Jeffrey P.; Shankar, Uma; Xiu, Aijun; Talgo, Keith; Yang, Dongmei; Dixon, Ernest, IV; McKenzie, Donald; Abt, Karen L. 2016. Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(7): 715-729. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF15124
Keywordsclimate change, human-caused wildfire, land use, lightning-caused wildfire
- Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60
- Contrasting human influences and macro-environmental factors on fire activity inside and outside protected areas of North America
- The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of tribal land units in the United States
XML: View XML