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    Author(s): John R. Mills; Xiaoping Zhou
    Date: 2003
    Source: Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-568. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 58 p
    Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)
    Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (1.17 MB)


    National forest inventories were projected in a study that was part of the 2000 USDA Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA) timber assessment. This paper includes an overview of the status and structure of timber inventory of the National Forest System and presents 50-year projections under several scenarios. To examine a range of possible outcomes, results are shown for five removals scenarios that incorporate assumptions from both current and past studies of wood flows and harvesting on national forests. In addition, two projections were developed to examine the effects of volume reductions associated with large-scale disturbance events, such as fires, insects, and disease. Projections were made by region and forest type by using the aggregated timberland assessment system and plot-level inventory data with methods consistent with procedures followed for private timberlands in the assessment. The results of projected inventory volume differ across regions, but the total inventory of both softwood and hardwood forest types is shown to increase in all scenarios. One result is a shift in area to older age classes. Initially, 15 percent of the timberland is classified as stands older than 150 years; under the base scenario with disturbance, this area will increase to 32 percent by 2050. This shift means that in the future, a larger share of U.S. timberland is projected to support mature and old forest conditions.

    Publication Notes

    • Visit PNW's Publication Request Page to request a hard copy of this publication.
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    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.


    Mills, John R.; Zhou, Xiaoping. 2003. Projecting national forest inventories for the 2000 RPA timber assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-568. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 58 p


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    National forests, timber supply, modeling, inventory projection, yield function, seral stage, public policy

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