Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand
    Date: 2017
    Source: In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.
    Publication Series: Book Chapter
    Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (264.0 KB)

    Description

    Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range of decision‐support components, including fire behavior modeling, fire weather information, air quality and smoke management, economics, organization assessment, and risk assessment. Here we focus on WFDSS’s provision of probabilistic information and how it can facilitate strategic and tactical decision making. However, the management of active wildfire incidents can be highly complex and subject to multiple uncertainties, only some of which are addressed by WFDSS. We review remaining uncertainties, including identified issues in how fire managers interpret and apply probabilistic information, and conclude with observations and predictions for the future direction of risk‐based wildfire decision support.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael. 2017. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.

    Keywords

    wildfire risk assessment, Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), management

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53458