Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]

Author(s):

David Calkin
Joe H. Scott
Michael Hand

Year:

2017

Publication type:

Book Chapter

Primary Station(s):

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Source:

In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.

Description

Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range of decision‐support components, including fire behavior modeling, fire weather information, air quality and smoke management, economics, organization assessment, and risk assessment. Here we focus on WFDSS’s provision of probabilistic information and how it can facilitate strategic and tactical decision making. However, the management of active wildfire incidents can be highly complex and subject to multiple uncertainties, only some of which are addressed by WFDSS. We review remaining uncertainties, including identified issues in how fire managers interpret and apply probabilistic information, and conclude with observations and predictions for the future direction of risk‐based wildfire decision support.

Citation

Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael. 2017. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.

Publication Notes

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53458