Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Becky K. KernsJohn B. KimJeffrey D. KlineMichelle A. Day
    Date: 2016
    Source: Regional Environmental Change. 16(7): 2129-2140.
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Pacific Northwest Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (1.0 MB)

    Description

    We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis relied on spatial data used by federal agencies to evaluate these stressors nationally. We combined stressor data with a climate change exposure metric to identify when temperature is likely to depart from historical conditions and become ‘‘unprecedented.’’ We used a neighborhood analysis procedure based on key stressor thresholds within a geographic information system to examine the extent of landscape exposure to our set of individual and coinciding stressors. Our focus is on identifying large contiguous areas of stress exposure which would be of national concern to identify potential locations most vulnerable to resulting ecological and social disruption. The arrival of record-setting temperatures may be both rapid and widespread within the CONUS under RCP8.5. By 2060, 91 % of the CONUS could depart from the climate of the last century. While much of the CONUS may be impacted by at least one of the landscape stressors we examined, multiple coinciding stressors occurred for less than 9 % of the CONUS. The two most prevalent coinciding stressors were (1) wildfire potential combined with insects and disease risk, and (2) climate departure combined with urban and exurban development. Combined exposure to three or more stressors was rare, but we did identify several localized high-population areas that may be vulnerable to future change. Additional assessment and research for these areas may provide early and proactive approaches to mitigating multiple stressor exposure.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to pnw_pnwpubs@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Kerns, Becky K.; Kim, John B.; Kline, Jeffrey D.; Day, Michelle A. 2016.US exposure to multiple landscape stressors and climate change. Regional Environmental Change. 16(7): 2129-2140.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    Environmental and ecological monitoring, vulnerability and risk assessment, stressors, forest health, wildfire, insects and disease, urban and exurban development.

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53986