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    Author(s): Ana Carolina Monmany; William Gould; Maria Jose Andrade-Nunez; Grizelle GonzalezMaya Quinones
    Date: 2017
    Source: Forest Ecology and Conservation. Chapter 4. InTech: Rijeka, DOI: 10.5772/63322
    Publication Series: Book Chapter
    Station: International Institute of Tropical Forestry
    PDF: Download Publication  (2.0 MB)

    Description

    Global estimates of fire frequency indicate that over 70% of active fires occur in the tropics, and the size and frequency of fires are increasing every year. The majority of fires in the tropics are an unintended consequence of current land-use practices that promotes the establishment of grass and shrubland communities, which are more flammable and more adapted to fire than forests. In the Caribbean, wildland fires occur mainly in dry forests and in grasslands and crop lands. Climate change projections for the Caribbean indicate increasing area of drylands and subsequent increasing potential for wildland fire. We assessed the last decade of fire occurrence records for Puerto Rico to quantify the relative importance of time, climate, land cover, and population to inform predictive models of fire occurrence for projecting future scenarios of fire risk. Kruskal-Wallis, generalized linear models, robust regression, simple and multiple regressions, and tree models were used. We found that hour of the day (time), mean minimum temperature (climate), and percent forest cover (land cover) significantly influenced fire occurrence, while population showed a weak effect. Many variable interactions showed to be important. These significant variables and interactions should be considered in fire-predicting models for the island

    Publication Notes

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    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Monmany, A. C.; Gould, W. A.; Núñez, M. J. A.; González, G.; Quiñones, M. 2017. Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico. Chapter 4 In: Chakravarty, S.; Shukla, G., Eds., InTech: Rijeka, DOI: 10.5772/63322

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    Keywords

    wildfire, tropical dry forests, wildfire predictability, climate change, Caribbean

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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54146