Skip to Main Content
Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observationsAuthor(s): Wei Li; Philippe Ciais; Shushi Peng; Chao Yue; Yilong Wang; Martin Thurner; Sassan S. Saatchi; Almut Arneth; Valerio Avitabile; Nuno Carvalhais; Anna B. Harper; Etsushi Kato; Charles Koven; Yi Y. Liu; Julia E. M. S. Nabel; Yude Pan; Julia Pongratz; Benjamin Poulter; Thomas A. M. Pugh; Maurizio Santoro; Stephen Sitch; Benjamin D. Stocker; Nicolas Viovy; Andy Wiltshire; Rasoul Yousefpour; Sönke Zaehle
Source: Biogeosciences Discussions
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (745.0 KB)
DescriptionThe use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (EcLUC) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and EcLUC. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of EcLUC range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155±50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained EcLUC is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationLi, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Peng, Shushi; Yue, Chao; Wang, Yilong; Thurner, Martin; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Arneth, Almut; Avitabile, Valerio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Harper, Anna B.; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles; Liu, Yi Y.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Pan, Yude; Pongratz, Julia; Poulter, Benjamin; Pugh, Thomas A.M.; Santoro, Maurizio; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zaehle, Sönke. 2017. Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations. Biogeosciences Discussions. 14: 5053-5067. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-186.
- How landscape ecology informs global land-change science and policy
- Tropical wetlands, climate, and land-use change: adaptation and mitigation opportunities
- Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
XML: View XML