Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Kyle J. Haynes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew J. Allstadt; Randall S. Morin
    Date: 2018
    Source: Oikos
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Northern Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (2.0 MB)


    Evaluating the causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics in nature is notoriously difficult due to a lack of data and appropriate statistical methods. Here, we use a recently developed method, a multivariate extension of the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation statistic, to map geographic variation in the synchrony of gypsy moth outbreaks. Regression analyses indicated that local synchrony of gypsy moth defoliation increased with the local synchrony of precipitation and the proportion of host tree density composed of oaks, especially those in the Lobatae (red oak) section. This may be the first study that demonstrates a relationship between defoliator population synchrony and host tree composition. More broadly, this study contributes to a small body of recent work that illustrates how mapping hotspots of unusually high or low synchrony facilitates an improved understanding of factors influencing spatially synchronous population dynamics generally, and triggers of pest insect outbreaks, more specifically.

    Publication Notes

    • Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
    • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
    • During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
    • Please contact Sharon Hobrla, if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.


    Haynes, Kyle J.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Morin, Randall S. 2018. Geographic variation in forest composition and precipitation predict the synchrony of forest insect outbreaks. Oikos. 127(4): 634-642.


    Google Scholar

    Related Search

    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page