Skip to Main Content
Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate changeAuthor(s): Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser
Source: Science of The Total Environment
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Southern Research Station
Download Publication (1.0 MB)
DescriptionDemographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree specieswith distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200 m year−1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationWang, Wen J.; He, Hong S.; Thompson, Frank R.; Spetich, Martin A.; Fraser, Jacob S. 2018. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change. Science of The Total Environment. 634: 1214-1221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.353.
KeywordsDispersal, Demography, Landscape modeling, Species distribution modeling, LANDIS PRO
- Evidence of tree species’ range shifts in a complex landscape
- Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors
- Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming
XML: View XML