Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Uma Shankar; Jeffrey PrestemonDonald McKenzie; Kevin Talgo; Aijun Xiu; Mohammad Omary; Bok Haeng Baek; Dongmei Yang; William Vizuete
    Date: 2018
    Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Southern Research Station
    PDF: View PDF  (1.0 MB)

    Description

    Wildfires can impair human health because of the toxicity of emitted pollutants, and threaten communities, structures and the integrity of ecosystems sensitive to disturbance. Climate and socioeconomic factors (e.g. population and income growth) are known regional drivers of wildfires. Reflecting changes in these factors in wildfire emissions estimates is thus a critical need in air quality and health risk assessments in the south-eastern United States. We developed such a methodology leveraging published statistical models of annual area burned (AAB) over the US Southeast for 2011–2060, based on county-level socioeconomic and climate projections, to estimate daily wildfire emissions in selected historicaland future years. Projected AABs were 7 to 150% lower on average than the historical mean AABs for 1992–2010; projected wildfire fine-particulate emissions were 13 to 62% lower than those based on historical AABs, with a temporal variability driven by the climate system. The greatest differences were in areas of large wildfire impacts from socioeconomic factors, suggesting that historically based (static) wildfire inventories cannot properly represent future air quality responses to changes in these factors. The results also underscore the need to correct biases in the dynamical downscaling of wildfire climate drivers to project the health risks of wildfire emissions more reliably. 

     

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to pubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Shankar, Uma; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; McKenzie, Donald; Talgo, Kevin; Xiu, Aijun; Omary, Mohammad; Baek, Bok Haeng; Yang, Dongmei; Vizuete, William. 2018. Projecting wildfire emissions over the south-eastern United States to mid-century. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 27(5): 313-328. 16 p. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17116.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    climate and socioeconomic change, emissions projections, wildfires

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56284