Skip to Main Content
Kirtland's warbler winter habitat changes across the Bahamian Archipelago in response to future climate-condition scenariosAuthor(s): Daniel M. Wolcott; Deahn M. Donner; Donald J. Brown; Christine A. Ribic
Source: Caribbean Naturalist. 49: 1-20.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
PDF: Download Publication (526.0 KB)
DescriptionChanging climate may impact species through several processes, including phenologic shifts in seasonal timing of food supplies. These temporal changes can create trophic mismatches for species during major life-cycle events such as migration. For long-distance Neotropical–Nearctic migratory songbirds, body condition prior to migration is related to quality and quantity of food supply, which is a function of precipitation and temperature conditions on the wintering grounds. We assessed how future climate-change scenarios might affect wintering habitat of Setophaga kirtlandii (Kirtland's Warbler) on the Bahamian Archipelago. We used ensembles of general-circulation models to project precipitation and temperature patterns across the archipelago over the winter period, from baseline average until the end of the century. We also used topography layers to define Kirtland's Warbler winter habitat (open lands) and then made landcover-loss projections for open lands using 1- and 2-m sea-level–rise scenarios. Our results indicate that the Bahamian islands used by Kirtland's Warbler will become warmer and wetter during the winter months, except during March when central islands are predicted to go through a drying trend. Moreover, our models predict that the greatest habitat loss of coastal open land due to sea-level rise will occur on the northern, lower-elevation islands. If we consider both potential changes in habitat quality and quantity from changing climate, the north-central islands, which currently contain the majority of the wintering population, are likely the critical islands on which to focus climate-adaptation strategies. To help land managers spatially plan for habitat alteration, continued processing of high-resolution imagery is necessary for finer assessments of potential habitat loss, changes in habitat quality, and redistribution of habitats across this island system in response to changing environmental conditions and sea-level rise.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationWolcott, Daniel M.; Donner, Deahn M.; Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine A. 2018. Kirtland's warbler winter habitat changes across the Bahamian Archipelago in response to future climate-condition scenarios. Caribbean Naturalist. 49: 1-20.
- Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler
- Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland's Warbler
- Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery
XML: View XML