Skip to Main Content
Threat of climate change on a songbird population through its impacts on breedingAuthor(s): Thomas W. Bonnot; W. Andrew Cox; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh
Source: Nature Climate Change
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Northern Research Station
Download Publication (2.0 MB)
Related Research Highlights
A Warmer Midwest Could Lead to a Common Bird Becoming Less Common
DescriptionUnderstanding global change processes that threaten species viability is critical for assessing vulnerability and deciding on appropriate conservation actions. Here we combine individual-based and metapopulation models to estimate the effects of climate change on annual breeding productivity and population viability up to 2100 of a common forest songbird, the Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), across the Central Hardwoods ecoregion, a 39.5-million-hectare area of temperate and broadleaf forests in the USA. Our approach integrates local-scale, individual breeding productivity, estimated from empirically derived demographic parameters that vary with landscape and climatic factors (such as forest cover, daily temperature), into a dynamic-landscape metapopulation model that projects growth of the regional population over time. We show that warming temperatures under a worst-case scenario with unabated climate change could reduce breeding productivity to an extent that this currently abundant species will suffer population declines substantial enough to pose a significant risk of quasi-extinction from the region in the twenty-first century. However, we also show that this risk is greatly reduced for scenarios where emissions and warming are curtailed. These results highlight the importance of considering both direct and indirect effects of climate change when assessing the vulnerability of species.
- Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat.
- During the capture process some typographical errors may occur.
- Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationBonnot, Thomas W.; Cox, W. Andrew; Thompson, Frank R.; Millspaugh, Joshua J. 2018. Threat of climate change on a songbird population through its impacts on breeding. Nature Climate Change. 8(8): 718-722. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0232-8.
- Contrasting patterns of nest survival and postfledging survival in ovenbirds and Acadian flycatchers in Missouri forest fragments
- Temperature can interact with landscape factors to affect songbird productivity
- Parents or predators: Examining intraseasonal variation in nest survival for migratory passerine
XML: View XML