Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublandsAuthor(s): Erin C. Riordan; Arlee M. Montalvo; Jan L. Beyers
Source: Res. Rep. PSW-RP-270. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 130 p.
Publication Series: Research Paper (RP)
Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
Download Publication (24.0 MB)
Sourcing appropriate plant material for restoration within the heterogeneous landscape of southern California is a nuanced task further complicated by climate change. We generated species distribution models (SDMs) that may be useful tools for incorporating climate change scenarios into ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California scrub and shrubland habitats. We modeled regional patterns of suitable habitat under baseline (1951–1980) and midcentury (2040–2069) climate conditions for 44 focal plant taxa under five future climate scenarios. Projected changes in habitat suitability varied across taxa and climate scenarios. Future climate scenarios with the most extreme directional changes in precipitation (increase or decrease) resulted in the greatest projected loss of suitable habitat for most taxa. The majority of plant taxa we modeled had a high degree of stable future habitat suitability, with 31 taxa projected to have ≥75 percent of baseline suitable habitat maintaining suitability midcentury under at least three future climate scenarios. Infraspecific differences in projected midcentury suitable habitat highlight the importance of considering varieties and subspecies when applying modeling results to conservation and natural resource management decisionmaking. While we did not explicitly model plant communities, multitaxon suitability overlays revealed patterns for alluvial scrub, coastal sage scrub, mixed chaparral-sage scrub, and low-elevation chaparral vegetation groups that were less readily apparent in individual taxon maps. We discuss caveats regarding SDMs and suggest that they could be used as part of an integrated toolset for successful application.
The high-resolution version of this publication contains more detailed maps and graphics.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationRiordan, Erin C.; Montalvo, Arlee M.; Beyers, Jan L. 2018. Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublands. Res. Rep. PSW-RP-270. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 130 p.
KeywordsAlluvial scrub, chaparral, climate change, coastal sage scrub, ecological restoration, seed transfer, shrubland, southern California, species distri-bution modeling.
- Diptera community composition and succession following habitat disturbance by wildfire
- Salvia L.: sage
- Plant profile for Salvia apiana, Updated 2017
XML: View XML