Skip to Main Content
Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape modelAuthor(s): Alan A. Ager; Ana M. G. Barros; Michelle A. Day; Haiganoush K. Preisler; Thomas A. Spies; John Bolte
Source: Ecological Modelling. 384. 87-102.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
View PDF (3.0 MB)
DescriptionWe developed and applied a wildfire simulation package in the Envision agent-based landscape modelling system. The wildfire package combines statistical modelling of fire occurrence with a high-resolution, mechanistic wildfire spread model that can capture fine scale effects of fire feedbacks and fuel management, and replicate restoration strategies at scales that are meaningful to forest managers. We applied the model to a landscape covering 1.2 million ha of fire prone area in central Oregon, USA where wildland fires are increasingly impacting conservation, amenity values and developed areas. We conducted simulations to examine the effect of human versus natural ignitions on future fire regimes under current restoration programs, and whether contemporary fire regimes observed in the past 20 years are likely to change as result of fire feedbacks and management activities. The ignition prediction model revealed non-linear effects of location and time of year, and distinct spatiotemporal patterns for human versus natural ignitions. Fire rotation interval among replicate simulations varied from 78 to 170 years and changed little over the 50-yr simulation, suggesting a stable but highly variable and uncertain future fire regime. Interestingly, the potential for fire-on-fire feedbacks was higher for human versus natural ignitions due to human ignition hotspots within the study area. We compare the methods and findings with other forest landscape simulation model (FLSM) studies and discuss future application of FLSMs to address emerging wildfire management and policy issues on fire frequent forests in the western US.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationAger, Alan A.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Spies, Thomas A.; Bolte, John. 2018. Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape model. Ecological Modelling. 384. 87-102.
Keywordsagent-Based modelling, Envision, landscape modelling, forest management modelling, wildfire modelling, generalized additive models
- The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America
- Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA
- The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of tribal land units in the United States
XML: View XML