Skip to Main Content
U.S. Forest Service
Caring for the land and serving people

United States Department of Agriculture

Home > Search > Publication Information

  1. Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on LinkedInShare on Twitter
    Dislike this pubLike this pub
    Author(s): Raymundo Marcos-Martinez; Brett A. Bryan; Kurt A. Schwabe; Jeffery D. Connor; Elizabeth A. Law; Martin Nolan; José J. Sánchez
    Date: 2019
    Source: Ecosystem Services. 37: 100935
    Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
    Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
    PDF: Download Publication  (3.0 MB)

    Description

    Forest cover gains and losses occur in response to complex environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Yet the impact of forest gains and losses on the provision of ecosystem services differs markedly. Here we investigate the social costs of potential forest carbon change in Australia’s intensive agricultural region from 2015 to 2050 using spatial forest cover change and forest carbon models combined with climate and socioeconomic projections. More than 24,000 possible scenarios were used to identify the trend and lower and upper bounds of forest cover/carbon change. Net deforestation (3.5 million hectares, Mha) under the lower bound forest cover (LBFC) projection was around one-third less than net reforestation (4.8 Mha) under the upper bound forest cover (UBFC) projection by 2030. However, the CO2 emissions (1.3 Gigatons of CO2, GtCO2) from deforestation were more than double the sequestration (0.5 GtCO2) from reforestation. The social costs (up to 134 billion dollars) of the LBFC were almost five times the benefits of the UBFC (up to 28 billion dollars). The asymmetry decreased over time but persisted to 2050. This shows the markedly different social costs of potential forest carbon losses and gains under global change, evidence which can be useful to policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners.

    Publication Notes

    • You may send email to psw_communications@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication.
    • (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
    • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
    • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

    Citation

    Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo; Bryan, Brett A.; Schwabe, Kurt A.; Connor, Jeffery D.; Law, Elizabeth A.; Nolan, Martin; Sánchez, José J. 2019. Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change. Ecosystem Services. 37: 100935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100935.

    Cited

    Google Scholar

    Keywords

    Forest cover change, Carbon sequestration, Deforestation, Climate change, Australia, Agricultural expansion

    Related Search


    XML: View XML
Show More
Show Fewer
Jump to Top of Page
https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/58098