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Visual and MSR grades of lumber are not 2-parameter Weibulls and why this may matter
Author(s): Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky; Linda S. Brown
Date: 2019
Source: Journal of Testing and Evaluation. 48(5). 19 p.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Forest Products Laboratory
PDF: Download Publication (436.0 KB)Description
It has been common practice to assume that a 2-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber strength properties. Previous work has demonstrated theoreti-cally and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of a visual grade of lumber or of lumber that has been binned by modulus of elasticity (MOE) is not a 2-parameter Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR distribution are thinned via pseudo-truncation. Simulations have established that fitting 2-parameter Weibulls to pseudo-truncated data via either full or cen-sored data methods can yield poor estimates of probabilities of failure. In this article, we support the simulation results by analyzing large In-Grade type data sets and establishing that 2-parameter Weibull fits yield inflated estimates of the probability of lumber failure when spec-imens are subjected to loads near allowable properties. In this article, we also discuss the censored data or tail fitting methods permitted under ASTM D5457, Standard Specification for Computing Reference Resistance of Wood-Based Materials and Structural Connections for Load and Resistance Factor Design.Publication Notes
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Citation
Verrill, Steve P.; Owens, Frank C.; Kretschmann, David E.; Shmulsky, Rubin; Brown, Linda S. 2019. Visual and MSR grades of lumber are not 2-parameter Weibulls and why this may matter. Journal of Testing and Evaluation. 48(5). 19 p.Cited
Keywords
2-parameter Weibull distribution, pseudo-truncated Weibull distribution, machine stress rated lumber, modulus of elasticity binned lumber, visually graded lumber, thinned tail, lumber property distribution, lumber reliability, censored data, 2-parameter Weibull fitsRelated Search
- Visual and MSR grades of lumber are not two-parameter Weibulls and why it matters (with a discussion of censored data fitting)
- A fit of a mixture of bivariate normals to lumber stiffness—strength data
- Distributions of MOE and MOR in eight mill-run lumber populations (four mills at two times)
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https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/58528