Skip to Main Content
Evaluating ecological resilience across wildfire suppression levels under climate and fuel treatment scenarios using landscape simulation modellingAuthor(s): Robert E. Keane; Kathy Gray; Brett Davis; Lisa M. Holsinger; Rachel Loehman
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 28(7): 533-549.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Rocky Mountain Research Station
Download Publication (1.0 MB)
DescriptionContinued suppression of wildfires may allow more biomass to accumulate to foster even more intense fires. Enlightened fire management involves explicitly determining concurrent levels of suppression, wildland fire use (allowing some fires to burn) and fuel treatments to manage landscapes for ecological resilience. This study used the mechanistic landscape model FireBGCv2 to simulate ecological dynamics on three landscapes in the US northern Rocky Mountains to determine responses of seven management-oriented variables over a gradient of 10 fire suppression levels under two climate and four fuel treatment scenarios. We used a historical range and variation (HRV) time series of the seven variables individually and merged together as a Principal Components factor (PC1) to define the envelope that represents ecological resiliency and compared all simulations with the HRV base case. We found that under today’s climates, using the PC1 factor, ecological resilience was maintained while suppressing 30–90% of wildfires depending on the landscape. We also found fuel treatments might allow higher suppression levels to occur and still maintain resilience. Other findings indicate that each landscape must be individually evaluated to determine the right mix of wildfires, wildland fire use and fuel treatments depending on the response variables used to evaluate resilience.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication.
- (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
CitationKeane, Robert E.; Gray, Kathy; Davis, Brett; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Loehman, Rachel. 2019. Evaluating ecological resilience across wildfire suppression levels under climate and fuel treatment scenarios using landscape simulation modelling. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 28(7): 533-549.
Keywordsecological tipping points, FireBGCv2, spatial modelling, wildland fire use
- Modelling the effect of accelerated forest management on long-term wildfire activity
- Historical range of variability in landscape structure: a simulation study in Oregon, USA.
- Effects of accelerated wildfire on future fire regimes and implications for the United States federal fire policy
XML: View XML