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Modeling and mapping forest fire occurrence from aboveground carbon density in MexicoAuthor(s): Carlos Ivan Briones-Herrera; Daniel Jose Vega-Nieva; Norma Angelica Monjaras-Vega; Favian Flores-Medina; Pablito Marcelo Lopez-Serrano; Jose Javier Corral-Rivas; Artemio Carrillo-Parra; Miguel Angel Pulgarin-Gamiz; Ernesto Alvarado-Celestino; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Stefano Arellano-Perez; Juan Gabriel Alvarez-Gonzalez; Ana Daría Ruiz-Gonzalez; William Mathew Jolly
Source: Forests. 10: 402.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Station: Pacific Southwest Research Station
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DescriptionUnderstanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study focuses on modeling and mapping fire occurrence based on fire suppression data from 2005-2015 from aboveground biomass-expressed as aboveground carbon density (AGCD)-for the main ecoregions in Mexico. Our results showed that at each ecoregion, unimodal or humped relationships were found between AGCD and fire occurrence, which might be explained by varying constraints of fuel and climate limitation to fire activity. Weibull equations successfully fitted the fire occurrence distributions from AGCD, with the lowest fit for the desert shrub-dominated north region that had the lowest number of observed fires. The models for predicting fire occurrence from AGCD were significantly different by region, with the exception of the temperate forest in the northwest and northeast regions that could be modeled with a single-Weibull model. Our results suggest that AGCD could be used to estimate spatial fire occurrence maps; those estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision-making. Further investigation of anthropogenic drivers of fire occurrence and fuel characteristics should be considered for improving the operational spatial planning of fire management. The modeling strategy presented here could be replicated in other countries or regions, based on remote-sensed measurements of aboveground biomass and fire activity or fire suppression records.
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CitationBriones-Herrera, Carlos Ivan; Vega-Nieva, Daniel Jose; Monjaras-Vega, Norma Angelica; Flores-Medina, Favian; Lopez-Serrano, Pablito Marcelo; Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Pulgarin-Gamiz, Miguel Angel; Alvarado-Celestino, Ernesto; Gonzalez-Caban, Armando; Arellano-Perez, Stefano; Alvarez-Gonzalez, Juan Gabriel; Ruiz-Gonzalez, Ana Daría; Jolly, William Mathew. 2019. Modeling and mapping forest fire occurrence from aboveground carbon density in Mexico. Forests. 10: 402.
Keywordsaboveground biomass, ecoregions, fire occurrence
- Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003–2014
- Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing
- Developing models to predict the number of fire hotspots from an accumulated fuel dryness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico
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